A decade ago, it would have been unimaginable that a tech company like Google could successfully challenge automakers, that Tesla would be worth more than Ford, or that ridesharing firms would be major players in personal transportation.
Fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to massively disrupt the car industry, but who will win the hearts and minds of consumers and the inevitable self-driving car war: Automakers, tech giants, or ridesharing companies? It's "a new battleground," according to Bob Pishue, a senior economist at Inrix.
US Trusts Tech
In a recent survey, Inrix polled about 5,000 people from five countries who purchased a new vehicle in the last four years.
Respondents were asked who they trust most to build an AV: traditional automakers (e.g. BMW and General Motors); established tech giants (e.g. Apple and Google); newer carmakers (e.g. Tesla and Fisker Motors); ridesharing companies (e.g. Uber and Lyft); or trust all equally or none of the above.
The level of trust varied by region. For example, respondents in the US were slightly more trusting in tech powerhouses like Google and Apple than automakers to build AVs (27 percent vs. 23 percent, respectively).
This outlook shifts significantly in Germany, where nearly three times as many respondents trust traditional car makers most to build AVs. Interestingly, in all the countries surveyed (France, Italy, and the UK were also included), fewer than 4 percent of respondents had confidence that ridesharing companies will get robo-rides right.
Despite Americans' marginally higher faith in tech providers over automakers, the survey found that car companies have a distinct advantage in several respects. "With unknown and potentially unproven technology such as autonomous driving, consumers may default strongly to trusted brands such as the traditional car manufacturers," Inrix said.
"It will be important for car manufacturers to demonstrate that they can develop successful high-tech products," Inrix argued. My cynical side says good luck with that, since automakers have had a difficult time successfully integrating smartphone interfaces into cars, allowing Apple CarPlay and Google Android Auto to gain traction.
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But building a smartphone interface—or a smartphone—is nowhere near as complex as manufacturing a car, and this is where tech companies could falter and consumer confidence could waver. "A problem that new entrants like Google, Apple, Uber, and Lyft may face in convincing consumers to purchase or use AVs they manufacture is that they have no experience or familiarity of these brands in this space."
As car owners become more familiar with semi-autonomous driving technologies such as Volvo's Pilot Assist, it could also help automakers keep consumers in the fold in a future of autonomous driving. The survey also says that "familiarity with these emerging technologies and their benefits will be central to winning customers, especially early adopters of AVs."
While it's inconceivable that some automakers could be sidelined within a decade, history hasn't been kind to incumbents in the tech space and is littered with once prominent, pioneering brands such as Kodak, Atari, and Palm. Car companies at least have a potential head start in the AV race.